Cruel summer: March heat wave is a reminder to the West
Extreme heat is a year-round problem – and summer is coming
Extreme heat is a year-round problem – and summer is coming
A record-breaking heat wave scorched the West in March, and the potent mix of climate change plus a potential El Niño have set the stage for another scorching summer. This Earth Month, UCLA experts weigh in with their concerns about the summer heat outlook, from the increased risk of lengthier, more severe heat waves to the longer-term possibility of needing climate interventions like injecting sulfur into the atmosphere.
El Niño or not, the warmer climate already spikes the heat
Hall is a climate scientist, professor and director of both the Sustainable LA Grand Challenge and Institute of the Environment and Sustainability. Hall notes that El Niño conditions exacerbate heat, but emphasizes that the ongoing climate crisis brings more than enough trouble on its own.
Email: alexhall@g.ucla.edu
“What we’re seeing reflects a warmer baseline climate. Even without a strong El Niño in place, temperatures are higher than they would have been a few decades ago, and that increases the likelihood of unusually warm events. As we move toward summer, natural variability will continue to play a role, but it will be acting on top of a warmer climate. That means higher odds of persistent and widespread heat.”
“If an El Niño does develop later this year, it could further increase the chances of heat extremes, but the underlying warming trend is already doing a lot of the work. The climate system has warmed enough that some heat events that would have been very unlikely in the past are now much more plausible. That shift in the baseline is the key story.”
Heat is an issue year-round
Turner, an expert on the effects of extreme heat, is an associate professor of urban planning at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, co-author of the Luskin Center for Innovation’s Heat Policy Brief Series and regularly advises local and state officials on heat policy to address protect playgrounds, neighborhoods and cities.
Email: vkturner@g.ucla.edu
“March temperatures were extreme for summer — and it was still winter. A lot of people and organizations were caught off guard by such hot temperatures so early. It drives home the fact that heat is an all-season, all-climate issue that requires rethinking conventional wisdom about how to plan and manage it.”
“CalHeat Score is an important step in the right direction. It doesn’t just tell you how hot it is; it uses public health data to show how risky conditions are for your health.”
Heat wave duration is accelerating
Neelin is a climate scientist and distinguished professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences who studies climate variability. His recent research found that the length of heat waves is accelerating faster than global warming as a whole.
Email: neelin@atmos.ucla.edu
“For each half a degree warming in global temperature, the frequency of long-duration heat waves increases by more than occurred during the previous half degree warming, and each fraction of a degree of warming will have more impact than the last.”
If we must resort to climate intervention, we must understand it first
Parson is the Dan and Rae Emmett Professor of Environmental Law and faculty director of the Emmett Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, where he studies international environmental law and policy, and climate interventions like solar geoengineering.
Email: parson@law.ucla.edu
“Extreme weather events – including seasonal or yearly extremes like those we now seem to be facing from the El Niño that’s gathering steam – are among the impacts that are less precisely projected by climate models. But they’re among the impacts that people experience most strongly and care the most about. Current research also suggests that these events are among the impacts that Earth system interventions (ESIs) like stratospheric aerosol injection, or SAI, might be most effective at reducing – albeit imperfectly and temporarily.”
“The worse things get, the more important it is to have multiple responses known, understood and available to reduce climate risks. This is particularly true for earth system interventions, like SAI, that might be able to reduce risks faster than the essential core responses of cutting greenhouse gas emissions, removing old emissions from the atmosphere and adapting to projected changes. The shocking March heat wave, and the alarming projections for the next few months, hit home what a world heated beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius might feel like, and hit home how essential it will be to know how to use, and assess and govern use of, Earth system interventions like SAI. These things can’t be the complete response to climate change, but it’s looking increasingly like they might be used, or even necessary.”
Extreme heat creates a greater need for sustainable air conditioning solutions
Craig is a building scientist, architectural educator and associate professor at UCLA Architecture and Urban Design. He can talk about passive cooling techniques and thermodynamic approaches to architectural design that can improve heat resilience and replace traditional air conditioning systems.
Email: salmaan.craig@aud.ucla.edu
