study forecasts a severe climate future for california

Daniel Swain in LA Times: No rain in sight for L.A. area for next few weeks; critical fire weather warnings extended

The unusually long Santa Ana wind event is expected to ease Thursday evening. And with it, the fire risk will be reduced as well.

The expected 30-hour “extreme red-flag” warning largely arrived according to expectations, said Daniel Swain, climatologist with UCLA and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Through mid-November, there are no clear signs of rain anywhere in the forecast for California, Swain said. And the less rain California sees at the traditional start of the rainy season, statistically, the more likely it is that the entire wet season will be below average, Swain said.

Still, “a dry autumn doesn’t necessarily portend a dry winter,” Swain said. “We’ll have to take the seasons as they come.”