Estimating the Energy Impacts of Rebuilding after the Palisades and Eaton Fires
As communities look toward recovering from the Palisades and Eaton Fires, there is growing recognition that simply restoring the legacy energy systems may not be the safest or most sustainable path forward.
Key Findings from the California Center for Sustainable Communities at UCLA
- Building performance standards have improved over time but do not guarantee energy conservation.
- High-efficiency all-electric new construction would minimally change pre-fire electricity loads.
- Post-fire projections indicate a substantial reduction in residential natural gas consumption compared to pre-fire levels.
- Solar requirements in California’s Energy Code drive new opportunities and considerations for electric infrastructure buildout.
Introduction
The Eaton and Palisades fires left a trail of devastation — destroying homes, displacing communities, and disrupting lives. They also severely damaged local energy infrastructure, raising critical questions about how best to rebuild. As communities look toward recovery, there is growing recognition that simply restoring the legacy energy systems may not be the safest or most sustainable path forward. New findings from the California Center for Sustainable Communities at UCLA provide insight into the implications of California’s Building Energy Efficiency Standards and increasingly electric new construction.
The Palisades and Eaton Fire Regions
The Palisades and Eaton Fires caused widespread destruction across the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, Altadena, and portions of Malibu, Pasadena, Sierra Madre, and Topanga. The maps below depict the fire perimeters, as well as the zip codes used in this analysis to designate the fire regions.
Sources: Esri, DeLorme, HERE, MapmyIndia, County of Los Angeles Enterprise GIS Group
Findings
Finding 1: Electric Technology Adoption in Recent Construction
Over half of newly built and renovated homes in fire-affected areas show preferences for electric appliances. That being said, the specific end uses across the two regions differ. For example, while an estimated 26% of recently constructed homes in the Eaton fire region have adopted heat pump water heaters, only 5% of those in the Palisades region have. On the other hand, an estimated 52% of recently constructed homes in the Palisades region have heat pumps for space heating, compared to only 31% in the Eaton fire region.
Inferred Appliances of Recently Constructed Single Family Buildings
This variation in appliance electrification choices may be attributed to differences in demographics, personal preferences, and electricity providers (i.e., Los Angeles Department of Water and Power vs. Southern California Edison). However, more detailed analysis is still needed to better understand these trends.
Finding 2: Benefits of Improved Building Performance
Overall energy use intensity of Post-Fire construction is expected to be less than the Pre-Fire baseline as recent construction homes are more efficient – both due to improved performance of buildings’ thermal shells but also more efficient modern end-use appliances.
Recent Construction EUI as a Percentage of Pre-Fire EUI, by Fuel Type
Finding 3: Commonsense Electrification
Estimated Percentage Change in Electricity Consumption from Pre-Fire Baseline by Rebuild Scenario
High-efficiency all-electric new construction can provide significant climate and public health benefits, with modest change to historical electricity consumption.
In comparison to Pre-Fire baseline, high-efficiency residential electrification would decrease the Eaton Fire region’s electricity use and only marginally increase that of the Palisades Fire region’s. The relatively poor building performance of the older Eaton Pre-Fire building stock relative to the Palisades means there is greater opportunity for efficiency benefits with new construction.
Finding 4: Building Size Growth Considerations
While high-efficiency building electrification can vastly decrease overall building EUI, efficiency gains cannot always — and have not historically — fully offset the effects of building size growth. Despite stricter building codes and improvements in building materials and appliances, building energy consumption in California has increased over the past decades as buildings have trended larger — especially in high income neighborhoods (Fournier et al., 2019). Efforts to streamline like-for-like rebuilding may support a relatively modest increase in total floor area, but there is still need for caution regarding potential floor area growth.
Finding 5: Optimizing Electricity Infrastructure Buildout to Support New Construction
100% Solar Adoption for New Construction
New construction as part of the recovery will likely represent a significant growth in Los Angeles’ distributed generation. If homes are rebuilt with solar according to state requirements, net consumption will be close to zero. Larger per-building solar system sizes in the Palisades than Altadena are expected in order to offset consumption due to larger average electricity consumption per building.
Estimated Annual Consumption (kWh) Relative to Pre-Fire Baseline* of Rebuilt Single Family Residences at 100% of Pre-Fire Floor Area
Finding 6: Optimizing Gas Infrastructure Buildout to Support New Construction
Declining Gas Consumption
Appliance electrification and efficiency will drastically decrease the amount of gas that will be consumed, calling into question the economics of maintaining the gas distribution system, and the cost of gas for those who cannot or do not electrify. There is also a need to plan for transitioning surviving homes away from gas.
Estimated Percentage Change in Natural Gas Consumption from Pre-Fire Baseline
Project Team
Partners
Blue Ribbon Commission on Climate Action and Fire Safe Recovery
In response to the devastating January 2025 wildfires, Los Angeles County Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath launched the independent Blue Ribbon Commission on Climate Action and Fire Safe Recovery, in partnership with the University of California, Los Angeles. The Blue Ribbon Commission is responsible for developing a comprehensive set of recommendation to serve as a roadmap to ensure Los Angeles County’s recovery efforts are designed to withstand the realities of a changing climate.
Tags
2025 Ongoing Research Project